USA 2024 Election

With the US election coming up, everyone is wondering who will win. In the United States, their election is held on the first Tuesday of November of every fourth year, regardless of whether the government has a minority or majority rule because the president is elected separately from the Senate or the House. The Senate and House face re-election every two years.

Seasonal Ingress Chart

One traditional way of predicting elections is to look at the Sun’s seasonal ingress for the election period. For the United States, that would be the Autumnal Equinox since elections are always on the first Tuesday of November. The chart is set for Washington, DC, the country’s capital.

In the seasonal ingress chart, the tenth house represents the current ruling party, and the fourth house represents the opposition party. For all intents and purposes, the United States is only a two-party system despite there being other parties. Therefore, the chart represents one party or the other. This is slightly better than China’s one-party system. Ross Perot, running as an independent, managed to garner 19% of the vote in 1992.

The Data

Only elections from 1828 are taken into account. The election prior to this one had four candidates from the Democrat-Republican Party, which was the original Republicans. After 1828, the National Republican Party morphed into the Whigs and finally into the Republican Party.

One problem we could have with the accuracy of the model is there are only 49 charts.

For the analysis, we are only looking at a sample size of 23 or 26. This amount is not enough to predict with 100% accuracy.

The election data was taken from:  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election

Neural Nets

Neural nets are a form of artificial intelligence (AI) that takes several inputs and spits out an output based on the statistical number of occurrences and probabilities.

I’ve created several models to help predict the outcome of the election based on the seasonal ingress chart.

Chart Inputs

The chart looks at Placidus Tropical charts. The chart inputs used were:

• Planets, asteroids, nodes, new moons, and eclipses in sign and house
• Aspects between the planets, asteroids, nodes, new moons, and eclipses
• House and sign of the modern rulers of first, fourth, tenth
• Dispositors of rulers of first, fourth, and tenth
• Aspects to the rulers of the First, Fourth, and Tenth houses
• Planetary speeds
• Retrogrades
• Interceptions
• Declination parallels and contra-parallels

Software

The program used to create the neural network models is Fast Research by Air Software.

https://alphee.com/fast-research/

Models were created for:

• Republican victories
• Democrat victories
• Incumbent party victory
• Incumbent party losses

The model for the Republican victory uses Democratic victories as a control group and vice versa. The same applies to the incumbent party’s victories and losses.

The model works as follows: if we are examining a date when the Republicans won the election, then when we input that date into the Republican win model, the model should show 100% prediction as such.

For that same date inserted in the model for predicting a Democratic victory would be 0% as shown below.

There are some cases when the model is not certain. The result could be either or. In the example below, the top line is a definite prediction, whereas the bottom line is undetermined.

Results

Dates of Republican Election Victories

Running the charts of when the Republicans won their election in the models of Democrat Wins and Republican Wins, one can see there is a high probability for Republicans winning versus not much for the Democrats.

Dates of Democratic Election Victories

Running the charts of when the Democrats won their election in the models of Democrat Wins and Republican Wins, one can see there is a high probability for Democrats winning versus not much for the Republicans.

Dates of Incumbent Party Loss

Here is a comparison of the dates when the incumbent party lost to the Incumbent party loss model and the incumbent party win model.

Dates of Incumbent Party Victory

Here is a comparison of the dates when the incumbent party was elected to the incumbent party win model and the incumbent party loss model.

Prediction for 2024

From what we have seen from the results, we can determine the models are reasonably accurate. Looking at the upcoming election, we can use the model to try to predict the outcome.

If we consider the models for incumbent win/loss, we get the following result.

The incumbent loss is highly probable, whereas the incumbent winning is just below 50-50 chance. This suggests the Democrats will lose this election.

Using the models for party wins, we get the following result.

These results are far clearer, showing the Republicans winning in 2024 and in 2028. Although, when this election is over, we can update the models with additional results.