Toronto Election 2026

Toronto will hold a city council election, including a mayoral election, on 26 October 2026. There are 3 main candidates, but ideally, there are two frontrunners: incumbent mayor Olivia Chow and challenger Brad Bradford.

I could go into spending time analyzing their charts, but neither candidate has a timed chart, so any of the transits cannot truly be interpreted with any meaning since the houses cannot be defined, which means we do not have an Ascendant or a Midheaven; in addition, the Moon’s position can vary 12 degrees over the course of the day.

The one thing that sticks out is that Olivia Chow, on Election Day, has transiting Uranus conjunct her natal Mars. Typically, in one’s chart, this aspect will signify an accident. In the converse transit, that is, looking backwards from her birth for the same amount of time as the election is from her birth, she has transiting Pluto conjunct her natal Mars. If she were my client, I would warn her to be very careful around that time. With Pluto there, it could be a serious accident.

Ingress Chart

Typically, an election can be predicted by the seasonal ingress chart.  If the election would be held in the spring, it would be when the Sun enters Aries, Sun in Cancer for the summer, Libra for autumn, and Capricorn for winter. Since this election occurs in October, we look at the autumn chart located in Toronto, since it is a Toronto election.

The Libra Ingress, or Autumn Ingress, occurred on 22 September 2026 at 20:05.

In election charts, the Ascendant represents the public.  The Ascendant has Aries on it, and it is ruled by Mars in the Fourth House in Cancer. Home and housing are a main issue. Cancer rules security and food. Security, as in both safety and being able to provide for their families. These are the main issues in this election for the people of Toronto.

The Tenth House rules the incumbent, and the Fourth House represents the challenger.

The Tenth House has Capricorn on it, and it is ruled by Saturn in Aries in the Twelfth House, suggesting Mayor Chow will be responsible for her own downfall. Saturn is in fall in Aries, which means it is not in a strong placement. However, in a derived chart, it is in her Third House of communication. She must communicate her message forcefully and in a way that resonates with people.

Brad Bradford is represented by Cancer, and he is ruled by the Moon in Aquarius, which is not that strong. It is in the derived Eighth House, suggesting he needs to change his approach. He has been accused of changing his stance on many issues. Mars in his derived First House means he needs to be on the attack, but he has been accused of being too aggressive, and his team has asked him to tone it down.

This chart is very difficult to interpret.

Neural Nets

A neural net is a method of computer learning where you select several criteria which either result in a yes or no answer. My favourite example is predicting who will be an NBA basketball player. The criteria would as follows:

• Tall vs. Short
• Athletic vs. Unfit
• 20-40 years old vs. not
• Lanky vs. heavy set
• Ability to dribble vs. lacking the skill
• Ability to sink baskets vs. lacking the skill

All these criteria are taken in, and you run a group of people through, and the model spits out whether they are a basketball player or not.

Mayoral Model

In my mayoral model, I have taken the ingress chart for elections from 1887 to 2018, purposefully omitting 2022 and 2023, so that I can check to see if my model works correctly.  Typically, in a federal or provincial election, there is an incumbent party and a challenging party.

In mayoral elections, we can have an incumbent winner, an incumbent who loses, and an entirely new mayor since the incumbent doesn’t run because the election is not run along party lines. Luckily, in this election, we have an incumbent running.

In this analysis, the incumbent won 61 times, with 13 times the incumbent lost, and 36 times a new mayor was elected.  So, to determine if the mayor would win, I combined the incumbent losing with the new mayor to act as a control group against the times an incumbent mayor won.

Model Criteria

I examined the following criteria

• Planets in sign
• Planets, North Node, previous solar eclipse, previous New Moon in 1^st, 4^th, 10^th
• Aspects to planets in 1, 4, 10
• Moon phase, planetary phases
• Moon’s last aspect to a planet
• Intercepted planets
• declinations

The model was created using Alphee Lavoie’s Fast Research program (www.alphee.net). Then a Neural Net model was created.

The model was tested against the incumbent winners. The results should show 100% or all red bars. As you can see below, all but 9 scored at 100%. One was at about 95%, and 7 were at about 75% probability or higher. Only one was at 10% probability.

I was not able to get that result to improve without sacrificing the others. Therefore, the model predicts the mayoral incumbent victory with 98.4% accuracy.

​

Was this model successful? If the model shows the same red or 100% for the times the incumbent lost or a new mayor was elected, then the model would not be accurate.  Here are the results for the Incumbent Loses or new mayors being put through the model to predict an incumbent victory.

As you can see, the results are zero for all except for one that is about 5%. Meaning that when the incumbent lost, or we had a new mayor, it did not register in a model used to predict an incumbent mayor winning.

This suggests the model works.

Additional Test.

Since we left off the 2022 and 2023 elections, let’s run those dates through the model.

​

​Here, the model was able to predict John Tory’s reelection and did not register when we had a new mayor elected.

The 2026 Result

Since we have an incumbent Olivia Chow, what does the model predict for 2026? Will she be reelected, or will Brad Bradford succeed in uprooting her?

The model predicts that, with about 80% probability and 98.4% accuracy, Mayor Chow will retain her seat. We’ll just have to wait and see who wins.