Canadian Election 2025

​With the Canadian election coming up, everyone is wondering who will win. The election was called for 28 April by the new party leader, Mark Carney. Who will win?

Seasonal Ingress Chart

One traditional way of predicting elections is to look at the Sun’s seasonal ingress for the election period. For Canada, that would be the Vernal Equinox since the election occurs after the Vernal Equinox and before the Summer Solstice.

In the seasonal ingress chart, the tenth house represents the current ruling party (Liberals), and the fourth house represents the opposition party (CPC). For all intents and purposes, Canada has only two main parties despite there being other parties. Therefore, the chart represents the Liberals or the Conservative Party of Canada (or the Progressive Conservatives of the past).

The Data

In this study, we examine the data of the past 43 elections since 1867. I have broken the data out between Liberal vs Conservatives, Incumbents vs non-incumbent, and majority victories vs non-victories.

For the analysis, we are only looking at a sample size of 25 or 30 charts to a control group of 13 to 18. This amount is not enough to predict with 100% accuracy, but with every election, we gather more data to provide greater accuracy.

Neural Nets

Neural nets are a form of artificial intelligence (AI) that takes several inputs and gives out an output based on the statistical number of occurrences and probabilities.

I’ve created several models to help predict the outcome of the election based on the seasonal ingress chart.

Chart Inputs

The chart looks at Placidus Tropical charts. The chart inputs used were:

• Planets, asteroids, nodes, new moons, and eclipses in sign and house
• Aspects between the planets, asteroids, nodes, new moons, and eclipses (10° aspects)
• House and sign of the modern rulers of first, fourth, tenth
• Dispositors of rulers of first, fourth, and tenth
• Aspects to the rulers of the First, Fourth, and Tenth houses
• Planetary speeds
• Retrogrades
• Interceptions
• Declination parallels and contra-parallels

Software

The program used to create the neural network models is Fast Research by Air Software. https://alphee.com/fast-research/

Models were created for:

• Liberal victories – Liberal victories were chosen because there were more victories than Conservative. For Neural Net calculations, part of the study group has to be segregated to create the neural network. Since the Liberals won more times (25-18) then, the Conservative victories were treated as the control group.
• Incumbent victories – Incumbent victories were chosen because there were more victories than non-incumbent. For Neural Net calculations, part of the study group has to be segregated to create the neural network. Since the incumbent won more times (25-17) then, the non-incumbent victories were treated as the control group.
• Majority victory – Majority victories were chosen because there were more victories than minority victories. For Neural Net calculations, part of the study group has to be segregated to create the neural network. Since there were more majority victories (30-13) then, the minority victories were treated as the control group.

The model works as follows: if we are examining a date when the Liberals/Incumbent/Majority won the election, then when we input that date into the respective win model, the model should show 100% prediction as such.

For that same date inserted in the aforementioned model, the Conservative/non-incumbent/minority victory would show up as 0%, as shown below.

There are some cases when the model is non-conclusive. The result could be either or. In the example below, the top line is a definite prediction, whereas the bottom line is undetermined.

​Results

Dates of Liberal Election Victories

Running the charts of when the Liberals won their election and when the Conservatives won in the Liberal wins model shows how accurately the model functions. From the figure below, the model shows that the Liberals score high when they win and score low when the Conservatives win (Liberal loss).

Incumbent Victories

The model was created to predict an incumbent victory. When incumbent victories were plugged into the model, it was predicted accurately, with the only exception being the 2019 election. When the incumbent loss was input into the model, it predicted they wouldn’t win.

Majority vs. Minority

Here, the model’s ability to predict a majority government vs a minority government. As you can see, the model accurately predicted the majority versus minority government.

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Prediction for 2025

From what we have seen from the results, we can conclude the models are reasonably accurate. Looking at the upcoming election, we can use the model to try to predict the outcome. The model predicts that the incumbent will win with an approximate 80% probability. The Liberal’s victory is about 55% certain, and the chances of a majority government is about 90%.

These results are based on the seasonal ingress chart. It worked for the US Elections. See:  https://www.soulbody.ca/usa2024election/